Tourism Trends and Megatrends
All indicators confirm that the tourism industry has consistently continued to grow despite the economic crisis that affected many regions of the world in the last ten years. Global expenditures on travel increased by more than 100% between 2000 and 2016.
The latest available data on tourism trends are published by UNWTO3 in its World Tourism Barometer. Other relevant data are available in the 2018 edition of “OECD Tourism Trends and Policy”4 published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
According to the World Tourism organization, International tourist arrivals grew 6% in the first six months of 2018 compared to the same period last year, reflecting a continuation of the strong results of 2017 (+7%).
All world regions enjoyed robust growth, fuelled by strong demand from major source markets and supported by an upswing in the global economy. Europe as a whole (led by France, Spain and Italy), Asia and the Pacific led growth in January to June 2018, with arrivals increasing 7% in both regions. The Middle East and Africa reached also great results with 5% and 4% growth respectively, while the Americas saw a 3% increase. Preliminary data on international tourism receipts confirm the positive trend seen in international tourist arrivals, with particularly strong results in Asian and European destinations.
Concentrating on the tourism demand, France, the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation, India, the Republic of Korea and the United States had the most outbound spending from their regions.
The market is expected to grow steadily for the next years, as it has grown at the average pace of 4% in the last 7 years.
A number of different factors will affect societies in the coming years, which will have to be taken into consideration to prepare for the next challenges in the tourism market. It is therefore interesting to name some of the so called “megatrends” which are studied by experts and comparing them to the projected demand and offer of tourism in the near future:
– Demographic changes
– Sustainability
– New technologies
– Travel behaviour
Regarding demographic changes, the share of people over 60 years of age in the global population is expected to nearly double over the next 35 years. As people become older it is very likely that they will develop various impairments and therefore will have additional access requirements. As such, the travel market for older people is likely to grow substantially and infrastructure and support services will have to be tailored to accommodate this increased demand. For example, accessibility (both for physical access and provision of information is likely to be an area of particular concern for older tourists.
At the same time, ‘Millennials’ and ‘Generation Z’ will be key tourism consumer groups in the future. It can be anticipated that the travel patterns and preferences of these younger demographic groups will require new responses from policy-makers and the tourism industry. Accessibility also has to be a key concern, as many of these users may have various access requirements and should not be excluded.
Accessible Tourism contributes especially to the social dimension of sustainable development, as it considers the diverse range of individuals, whether they are visitors or local citizens within its remit. Additionally, by following the principles of Universal Design, environments, products and services are designed to respond to the various access requirements of the majority of the population, therefore reducing the need for future adaptations which are costlier, more time-consuming and require additional resources.
New technologies continue to change the way tourists plan and experience travel. Digitalisation is transforming the sector, and peer-to-peer/shared usage platforms will likely continue to create new market places and business models. The tourism sector is likely to feel the impacts of automation and integration of machine learning in the workforce, and in fact technology is already changing the consumer face of tourism in some sectors (hotel front desk, airport check in, etc.), while developments in information and communications technologies have progressively changed tourism value chains, and the position of SMEs within them.
Lastly, Travel Behaviour will be affected by a range of internal and external factors over the next 20-25 years, presenting opportunities and challenges for industry and policy makers. The sheer growth in visitor numbers, safety and security concerns, perceptions of travellers, changes in customs and immigration policies, transport innovations, access infrastructure, and aviation regulations, are just some of the issues likely to affect the movement of people.
3 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2018
4 OECD (2018), OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2018, OECD Publishing, Paris.